At present, China's economic and social development has entered a new normal. Refractories and its major downstream industries are industries with severe overcapacity. The output of magnesium carbon brick manufacturers has also reached the peak arc top zone. The era of growth by scale is gone. return. In this case, we must have a comprehensive understanding of the current production and operation of the refractory industry, at the same time, understand the changes in the demand of the refractory downstream industry, and clarify the new difficulties and problems that the refractory industry is facing. Help the refractory companies make targeted transformation adjustments and achieve new development in the new situation.

       Production and import and export volume of refractory industry decreased

In 2015, according to the statistics of China Refractories Industry Association, the national refractory output was 261.519 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%. Among them, the dense shaped refractory products were 15.278 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%; the thermal insulation products were 473,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%; the amorphous refractory products were 10.399,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.44%.

In terms of exports, in 2015, the total import and export trade of refractory raw materials was US $ 3.062 billion, a decrease of 14.01% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the export trade volume was US $ 2.903 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.85%; the import trade volume was US $ 159 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.08%.

In 2015, the total export of refractory raw materials was 5.164 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.77%. Among them, the export volume of refractory raw materials was 3.4462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%; the export trade amounted to US $ 1.543 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.08%. Among them, the export volume of fused magnesia and sintered magnesia was 300,800 tons and 541,100 tons (total 842,900 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 18.24% and 18.41% respectively; the export volume of refractory alumina clay, brown corundum and white corundum were 843,100 tons, 515,600 tons and 161,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, 16.32%, and 16.54%; graphite and silicon carbide exports were 106,800 tons and 318,800 tons, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% and 1.56%.

In 2015, the total export of refractory products was 17.181 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.74%; the export trade volume was 1.359 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.40%. Among them, the export volume of alkaline refractory products was 824,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.47%; the export volume of aluminum-silicon refractory products was 731,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%; the export volume of other refractory products was 162,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.53%.

产量 The output of major downstream industries is no longer soaring

Iron and steel industry: domestically, in 2015, the national crude steel output was 804 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.33%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; the steel output was 1,123 million tons, an increase of 0.56%, and the growth rate fell 3.9% year-on-year. Internationally, according to World Steel Association statistics, global crude steel output (66 countries and regions) reached 1.60 billion tons in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Among them, the crude steel output in Asia was 1.097 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, accounting for 68.55% of the global steel output, and China's crude steel output accounted for 50.24% of the global total.

Building materials industry: In 2015, the national cement output was 2.348 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; the flat glass output was 739 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%.

Non-ferrous metal industry: In 2015, the output of 10 non-ferrous metals nationwide was 50.9 million tons, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 31.41 million tons, an increase of 8.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; the output of copper was 7.96 million tons, an increase of 4.8%, a decrease of 9 percentage points; the output of lead was 3.86 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year The year-on-year decrease was 0.2 percentage points; the zinc output was 6.15 million tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points; the alumina output was 58.98 million tons, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points.

The development of refractory industry is facing downward pressure on demand

产量 Both the output and economic benefits of the major downstream industries fell. As mentioned above, in 2015, except for the output of 10 non-ferrous metals in the major downstream industries, which increased by 5.8% year-on-year (a decrease of 1.4 percentage points), the output of crude steel, cement and flat glass fell by 2.3%, 4.8% and 8.6%, respectively. In particular, steel and cement have experienced negative growth for the first time in nearly 30 years and 25 years, respectively.

In addition, the economic benefits of downstream industries have fallen sharply. In 2015, the iron and steel industry suffered an industry-wide loss. The key statistics of iron and steel enterprises' sales income were 2.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.05%, profits and taxes of 1.3 billion yuan, and profits of -64.5 billion yuan. The company's loss reached 50.5%, a year-on-year increase of 33.67. The non-ferrous metal industry realized a main business income of 5.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and a profit of 197.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2%. However, the non-ferrous metal processing industry realized a profit of 108.04 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. The main business income of the industry and flat glass were 889.7 billion yuan and 59.6 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% and 14.3%; the realized profits were 33 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58% and 12.4%.

The major downstream industries are facing the dual pressure of severe overcapacity and slowing market demand. At present, the main downstream industries of refractory are all industries with severe overcapacity. In recent years, the capacity utilization rate has been around 70% ~ 75%. Take the steel industry as an example. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the CIF price of imported iron ore was basically maintained at about US $ 40 / ton, which is much lower than the cost of domestic iron ore production. In addition, the price of coal has fallen, and iron and steel smelting enterprises should have been increased Profit margin. However, due to overcapacity, the prices of steel products have always hovered above and below the product cost, and industry-wide losses have occurred.

Similar to steel, the average annual spot prices of copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc in the non-ferrous metal industry decreased by 16.8%, 10.2%, 5.5%, and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively. The main business income of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and the profit reached 197.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% (a loss of nearly 21%), but it is worth noting that the total profit of non-ferrous metal processing industry The realized profit was 108.04 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, accounting for 60% of the industry's overall profit. The non-ferrous metal smelting industry related to refractory materials may have a greater decline in economic benefits. The main business income of the cement manufacturing industry and flat glass decreased by 9.4% and 14.3% year-on-year, and the realized profits decreased by 58% and 12.4% year-on-year.

需求 The market demand of traditional industries has declined. With the slowdown in the growth rate of fixed asset investment across the country, demand growth in real estate, automobiles, home appliances and other application and consumption areas has declined to varying degrees. Among them, the floor space of newly started housing fell by 14% year-on-year, and the production and sales rate of the home appliance industry fell by 1.2% year-on-year. The output growth rate of the automobile industry decreased by 4% year-on-year. Therefore, the consumption demand of traditional industries is not optimistic, especially the consumption of steel, cement, glass and non-ferrous metals related to infrastructure construction is declining.